New research study by LLNL researchers reveals that satellite measurements of the temperature level of the troposphere (the most affordable area of the environment) might have ignored worldwide warming over the last 40 years. One of the physical procedures they took a look at was tropical water vapor like displayed in this NASA image. Credit: NASA
New research study by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) environment researchers and partners reveals that satellite measurements of the temperature level of the troposphere (the most affordable area of the environment) might have ignored worldwide warming over the last 40 years.
The research study appears in the Journal of Climate.
The group studied 4 various residential or commercial properties of tropical environment modification. Each home is a ratio in between patterns in 2 “complementary” variables. Complementary variables — like tropical temperature level and wetness — are anticipated to reveal correlated habits. This associated habits is governed by standard, well-understood physical procedures.
The very first 3 residential or commercial properties thought about by the group included relationships in between tropical temperature level and tropical water vapor (WV). WV patterns were compared to patterns in sea surface area temperature level (SST), lower tropospheric temperature level (TLT) and mid- to upper tropospheric temperature level (TMT). The 4th home was the ratio in between TMT and SST patterns. All 4 ratios are firmly constrained in environment design simulations, in spite of design distinctions in environment level of sensitivity, external forcings and natural irregularity. In contrast, each ratio shows a big variety when determined with observations. Model pattern ratios in between WV and temperature level were closest to observed ratios when the latter are determined with datasets showing bigger tropical warming of the ocean surface area and troposphere.
For the TMT/SST ratio, model-data consistency depended upon the mix of observations utilized to approximate TMT and SST patterns. Observational datasets with bigger warming of the tropical ocean surface area yielded TMT/SST ratios that remained in much better arrangement with design outcomes.
“Such comparisons across complementary measurements can shed light on the credibility of different datasets,” according to LLNL’s Stephen Po-Chedley, who added to this research study. “This work shows that careful intercomparison of different geophysical fields may help us determine historical changes in climate with greater precision.”
If environment design expectations of these relationships in between tropical temperature level and wetness are practical, the findings show either a methodical low predisposition in satellite tropospheric temperature level patterns or an overestimate of the observed climatic moistening signal.
“It is currently difficult to determine which interpretation is more credible,” stated LLNL environment researcher Ben Santer, lead author of the paper. “But our analysis reveals that several observational datasets — particularly those with the smallest values of ocean surface warming and tropospheric warming — appear to be at odds with other, independently measured complementary variables.”
Reference: “Using Climate Model Simulations to Constrain Observations” by Benjamin D. Santer, Stephen Po-Chedley, Carl Mears, John C. Fyfe, Nathan Gillett, Qiang Fu, Jeffrey F. Painter, Susan Solomon, Andrea K. Steiner, Frank J. Wentz, Mark D. Zelinka and Cheng-Zhi Zou, 20 May 2021, Journal of Climate.
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0768.1
Other Livermore researchers consist of Jeffrey Painter and Mark Zelinka. The LLNL group worked together with Carl Mears and Frank Wentz from Remote Sensing Systems, John Fyfe and Nathan Gillett from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change, Qiang Fu from the University of Washington, Susan Solomon from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Andrea Steiner from the University of Graz, Austria, and Cheng-Zhi Zou from the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Work at LLNL was moneyed by the Department of Energy’s Regional and Global Model Analysis Program-location in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division and by numerous LDRD grants.
