Bundesbank sees residential or commercial property market downturn however not a correction ahead

German central bank sees property market slowdown but no significant correction ahead

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Germany’s reserve bank is anticipating a downturn however no considerable correction in the nation’s residential or commercial property market in spite of cautions of overvaluation, according to a report released Thursday.

Claudia Buch, vice president of the Bundesbank, informed CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche: “We do see a slowdown in the price growth for residential real estate, but it’s not that the overall dynamic has reversed.”

“So we still have overvaluations in the market,” she stated.

The report keeps in mind the strong increase in German house rates from 2010 to mid-2022 and states overvaluations in the market have actually increased, varying in between 15% and 40% in both German cities and towns and the nation as a whole in 2021.

Some experts, consisting of at Deutsche Bank, have actually anticipated a sharp decrease for the sector. House rates have actually currently decreased around 5% because March, according to Deutsche Bank information, and they will drop in between 20% and 25% in overall from peak to trough, projections Jochen Moebert, a macroeconomic expert at the German loan provider.

Buch stated the reserve bank’s issue was the degree to which overvaluation was being driven by the loosening of credit requirements by an extremely quick development in credit property home loans.

“There we also see a slowdown,” she stated. “So we don’t currently think that additional measures are taken to slow down the build-up of vulnerabilities in this market segment, but we do think we need to keep monitoring the market because we know that private households are very much exposed to mortgage loans, so that’s the biggest component in private household debt.”

The German market has a high share of fixed-rate home loans so families are less susceptible to increasing rates of interest than in some other nations, she continued.

“Of course the risk doesn’t disappear, it’s still in the system, but this exposure to interest rate risk is largely with the financial sector, the banks who’ve done that lending with regard to mortgages.”

The Bundesbank’s Financial Stability Review for 2022 highlights other problems, consisting of degrading macroeconomic conditions and the downturn in German financial activity, increases in energy rates and the fall in genuine non reusable earnings.

It explains the German economy as at a “turning point” list below rate corrections in monetary markets, which have actually resulted in write-downs on securities portfolios. It likewise points out increased security requirements in futures markets and increased dangers from business loans.

It states there has actually been no essential reassessment of credit danger in German banks up until now however states its monetary system is “vulnerable to adverse developments.”

“The message is very clear, we need a resilient financial system, we need to keep building up resilience over the next period of time,” Buch informed CNBC.

Additional reporting by Hannah Ward-Glenton

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