China’s track record is at stake if Beijing assists Russia in Ukraine war

China's reputation is at stake if Beijing helps Russia in Ukraine war

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China threats paying “high reputational costs” needs to it choose to help Russia in its war versus Ukraine, according to one political expert.

Even if China wished to bail out Russia– either economically or financially– its capability to do so is really minimal, stated Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the U.S.

“Much of Russia’s direct exposure, China’s direct exposure to the worldwide monetary system stays in U.S. dollars– not in rubles and the Chinese currency RMB. They might make a small distinction at the margin, however [China] would pay a quite high reputational expenses for doing that,” he informed CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.

On Monday, U.S. nationwide security consultant Jake Sullivan held an “intense” seven-hour conference with China’s leading diplomacy consultant Yang Jiechi in Rome.

At the conference, Sullivan communicated to Chinese authorities that the U.S. is worried Beijing might try to assist Russia blunt international sanctions. The journey came amidst reports that Moscow asked China to assist supply military devices for its intrusion on Ukraine, consisting of surface-to-air rockets, armored lorries, and drones.

Russian President Vladimir Putin participates in a Victory Day military parade marking the 74 th anniversary of completion of World War II.

Anadolu Agency|Getty Images

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian on Monday rejected such reports of the Russian demand and called them destructive “disinformation.”

“The top priority at the moment is for all parties to exercise restraint, cool the situation down instead of adding fuel to the fire, and work for diplomatic settlement rather than further escalate the situation,” Zhao informed a routine instruction in Beijing.

Russia ‘pariah state’

The U.S., together with Ukraine and the Western allies, have “already won the information war” versus Russia, stated Daly.

“Valdimir Putin is … the bad guy in the eyes of the world,” and Moscow is quick ending up being a “pariah state,” he stated. China requires to “ask itself if that’s the side that it wants to be on,” Daly included.

“China had declared on February 4th that it had stood with Russia. But Russia, Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela, Iran — this isn’t really the international club that most Chinese people aspire to be part of. And circumstances are pushing China further in that direction. So there’s a reputational risk,” he kept in mind.

The most stunning advancement would be Chinese arrangement to supply military hardware or perhaps deadly weapons to Russia …

Given the absence of proof at this moment that China in fact offered military help to Russia, this problem will likely raise additional concerns, stated Yun Sun, a senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia Program and director of the China Program at the Stimson Center.

“There’s very little information as to what we’re actually talking about in terms of military assistance,” she informed CNBC onTuesday “There’s also the question as to whether Beijing actually provided those assistance or Beijing just expressed a willingness,” to supply some type of military assistance, she included.

China’s function might tip balance

Still, political observers think China’s relocate to supply any type of military or financial help to Russia might be a gamechanger and cause significant geopolitical effects.

Political threat consultancy Eurasia Group stated Monday it “still believes — with only moderate conviction — that China is unlikely to directly assist Russia’s invasion to this degree, as it is attempting to project neutrality in the conflict.”

One bottom line to enjoy in the coming days is whether China satisfies Russia’s demand for aid in its intrusion of Ukraine, the experts stated in a note.

“The most shocking development would be Chinese agreement to provide military hardware or even lethal weapons to Russia, which would amount to Beijing actively taking Moscow’s side in the conflict for the first time,” they stated.

“This development would soon elicit US and EU sanctions and would produce a long-term geopolitical fracture between China and the West, including pressures for more extensive economic decoupling.”