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On the roster: Fox Information Energy Rankings: Hey, Wisconsin – Manchin: Kavanaugh has ‘all the suitable qualities’ – Ryan’s PAC rakes in enormous haul – GOP members battle with Russia relationship – Hey Boo Boo!
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: HELLO, WISCONSIN
Nevertheless a lot you imagine gerrymandering is to credit score or blame for Republican management of Congress, there’s no debate that the occasion’s breathtaking success on the state stage has a terrific deal to do with the GOP’s electoral achievements of this decade.
You’ve most likely heard it mentioned earlier than, however in statehouses throughout the nation since 2008, Republicans have been on a tear. They management 32 legislatures outright and break up management of one other 4 with Democrats. And although they’ve misplaced some floor since their excessive water mark, Republicans nonetheless maintain the governorship in 33 states.
This issues extra than simply for bragging rights. Along with the power to attract congressional districts and develop expertise for federal elections the states additionally give Republicans an edge in relation to both obstructing, as they did with the Obama administration, or advancing federal initiatives, as they’re doing now.
That’s a good distance of claiming that the contests for 36 governorships this 12 months issues a terrific deal whether or not you reside in Penobscot, Peoria or Pocatello.
As our Fox Information Energy Rankings present (which you’ll be able to see at present in our brand-new on-line map) Republican successes on the state stage imply they’ve quite a lot of territory to defend this fall, together with in various very blue states. The Republican gubernatorial map is tough for the occasion because the Senate map is for Democrats.
To go together with our nifty, new map we even have some race score adjustments to make.
When you have been to hint the GOP’s success by means of 2016 to only one place it could most likely be Madison, Wis. That’s the place Gov. Scott Walker pulled off a stunner in 2010, survived a 2012 recall effort led by the federal government employee unions he zapped after taking workplace after which cruised to re-election in 2014. Walker’s star dimmed significantly after his botched 2016 presidential run, however that takes little away from the outstanding machine he has constructed within the Badger State.
We have been initially circumspect about Walker’s possibilities for a 3rd time period given the general political local weather this 12 months, the narrowness of President Trump’s victory in Wisconsin and the depth of Democratic opposition to him. But when there’s any governor in America Democrats need to beat probably the most, it’s Walker.
As Democrats strategy their Aug. 14 major it’s getting clearer that Walker goes to be as robust to defeat this time as he was earlier than. It appears to be like just like the state faculty superintendent Tony Evers has the benefit in a crowded subject, however there’s nothing like readability among the many Democrats. This is able to have been a terrific 12 months for the Blue Workforce to have averted a protracted major battle, however no such luck for them.
However the largest downside for Evers, or whichever Democrat comes by means of, is that voters appear to be tolerating Republican rule. The most recent ballot from Marquette College Legislation Faculty reveals that Walker continues to be above water in voter’s evaluation of his job efficiency, 49 p.c to 47 p.c. And whereas Trump is usually unpopular, his 44 p.c job approval score isn’t fairly the millstone that’s dragging down a few of Walker’s Republican counterparts in different states.
Forty-four p.c job approval is probably not precisely dreamy for Trump, nevertheless it’s about the place he’s nationally and it’s definitely ok to disclaim Democrats the prospect to run a very nationalized marketing campaign towards Walker. Whereas it’s true that Democratic depth, particularly in Dane County the house to the College of Wisconsin and in city precincts of Milwaukee, will probably be operating excessive there will not be indicators that America’s Dairyland is taking any sharp left turns up to now.
The truth is, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, has been elevating the alarm about her personal race. Walker’s turnout machine and entry to deep-pocketed donors has some Democrats involved that Baldwin could possibly be the sufferer of a late-race blitz.
For all these causes and the facility of incumbency, we’re shifting Wisconsin’s gubernatorial election from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican.”
THE RULEBOOK: NO DUH
“For it can’t be presumed that the identical diploma of sound coverage, prudence, and foresight would uniformly be noticed by every of those confederacies for a protracted succession of years.” – John Jay, Federalist No. 5
TIME OUT: JUST ASK ENGLAND
Atlantic: “The World Cup has a protracted historical past of injustices. … In so many instances all through soccer’s previous, entry to video replays would have helped the referees right their errors, presumably altering the course of the match—and historical past. However till just lately, soccer has been stubbornly immune to such know-how. … Huddled in a central operation room in Moscow, a video-assistant referee—or VAR—and three different assistants with entry to a number of cameras on the sphere have communicated with every match’s fundamental referee by means of an earpiece, serving to out with troublesome calls. Whereas replays have reversed a couple of dangerous selections, the end result has been largely disappointing. That is partly as a result of the brand new know-how has introduced with it many new issues. Nevertheless it’s additionally as a result of soccer, on the most basic stage, is made to be unjust. … Improvements in soccer usually remedy one interpretative riddle solely to create others. One can resent the sport’s vulnerability to interpretation, its ceaselessly unjust outcomes, or one can embrace it.”
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Trump job efficiency
Common approval: 41.2 p.c
Common disapproval: 52.6 p.c
Internet Rating: -11.four factors
Change from one week in the past: down zero.eight factors
[Common consists of: Gallup: 41% approve – 56% disapprove; Quinnipiac College: 40% approve – 55% disapprove; IBD: 41% approve – 54% disapprove; CNBC: 41% approve – 47% disapprove; USA Right this moment/Suffolk College: 43% approve – 51% disapprove.]
Management of Home
Republican common: 41 p.c
Democratic common: 48.2 p.c
Benefit: Democrats plus 7.2 factors
Change from one week in the past: no change
[Common consists of: Quinnipiac College: 50% Dems – 41% GOP; IBD: 48% Dems – 40% GOP; USA Right this moment/Suffolk College: 45% Dems – 39% GOP; CNN: 50% Dems – 42% GOP; Gallup: 48% Dems – 43% GOP.]
[Watch Fox – The most recent Fox Information Polls on the midterm race, President Trump’s job efficiency and extra will debut tonight on “Particular Report with Bret Baier” at 6 p.m. ET.]
MANCHIN: KAVANAUGH HAS ‘ALL THE RIGHT QUALITIES’
West Virginia MetroNews: “No, U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) mentioned Wednesday, he isn’t leaning both approach but on the nomination of U.S. District Court docket of Appeals D.C. Circuit Choose Brett Kavanaugh for the U.S. Supreme Court docket. On MetroNews ‘Talkline,’ Manchin known as Kavanaugh ‘a really advantageous individual of excessive ethical requirements’ with a variety of profession judicial opinions to assessment. ‘He has the all the suitable qualities. He’s well-educated and, with that, now we have to simply take a look at ensuring that the rule of regulation and the Structure goes to be adopted and that’s going to principally preempt the rest he does,’ Manchin mentioned. ‘Most significantly, I intend to listen to from West Virginians.’”
Kavanaugh vs. different SupCo nominations – Axios: “President Trump’s nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to fill the seat of Justice Anthony Kennedy comes simply 120 days earlier than the 2018 midterm election. The large image: There have been 5 different instances since 1950 when seats have opened inside 150 days of a midterm election. In three of them, the nomination course of was accomplished earlier than the election (David Souter, Antonin Scalia, Arthur Goldberg). Within the remaining two situations, each underneath President [Dwight Eisenhower], the nomination was delayed till after the election (Potter Stewart, John Marshall Harlan II). Why it issues: Mitch McConnell, who stalled Merrick Garland’s nomination to exchange Antonin Scalia as a result of it was near a presidential election, has promised that Kavanaugh’s affirmation hearings and vote will happen earlier than November.”
Brief to go away WH earlier than nomination battle begins – Politico: “President Donald Trump’s legislative affairs director is heading for the exits simply because the White Home gears up for a serious Supreme Court docket nomination battle and approaches a frightening midterm election panorama. Marc Brief, one of many administration’s longest-serving senior aides and a frequent spokesperson for the president on tv, is planning to depart by July 20, based on an individual conversant in the plans. Brief, who declined to touch upon the report, is taking a place at Guidepost Methods consulting agency and can educate on the College of Virginia’s enterprise faculty, the place he acquired his MBA, and also will function a senior fellow on the college’s Miller Heart.”
The Choose’s Ruling: No to Kavanaugh – This week, Fox Information Senior Judicial Analyst Choose Andrew Napolitano explains why he’s disenchanted with the president’s Supreme Court docket choose: “The suspense over all this was palpable earlier this week. The showman within the president beat a drum so successfully final weekend that all of us watched with excited pulse charges on Monday evening. I used to be and stay extraordinarily disenchanted. Donald Trump — no matter you consider him as a president — has been completely trustworthy to his marketing campaign guarantees in overseas and home coverage. Till now. Now he has given us a nominee to the best courtroom within the land who typifies the tradition he railed towards when he claimed he’d drain the swamp. This man and this tradition settle for chopping holes within the Fourth Modification as a result of they do not imagine that it ought to shield privateness.” Extra right here.
RYAN’S PAC RAKES IN HUGE HAUL
USA Right this moment: “A brilliant PAC allied with Republican Home Speaker Paul Ryan is raking in money to attempt to forestall a Democratic takeover of the Home within the Nov. 6 midterm elections. The Congressional Management Fund introduced $51 million in donations within the quarter ended June 30. Greater than half of the donations, $30 million, got here from Las Vegas on line casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, based on CLF. The haul is greater than the group introduced in all of 2016. This similar quarter in 2016 the PAC’s donors gave simply $four.6 million. With this quarter’s infusion, the GOP tremendous PAC could have $71 million money available, based on CLF. That cash will assist them as they face an energized Democratic base decided to flip the Home. Corry Bliss, the management fund’s govt director, mentioned the PAC has already reserved greater than $60 million in promoting this fall.”
Ryan focuses on tax reduce in last midterm gross sales pitch – AP: “Home Speaker Paul Ryan is crediting the GOP’s tax plan with bettering the U.S. economic system, an argument that’s central to the Republican pitch to voters forward of the midterm election. In a speech Thursday to the Financial Membership of Washington, D.C., Ryan says, ‘Tax reform is working. It’s bettering folks’s lives.’ Voters although, aren’t so certain. Polls are displaying combined help for the company and family tax cuts President Donald Trump signed into regulation final 12 months. The plan is projected so as to add $1.5 trillion to the deficit, however Republicans say these prices will probably be coated by financial progress. Ryan is retiring slightly than in search of re-election, however Republicans are relying on the tax plan as a part of the election-year message to maintain GOP management of the Home in fall.”
Beto beats Cruz in fundraising once more – Texas Tribune: “Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas, raised greater than $10.four million over the previous three months, he introduced Wednesday, revealing a sum that takes his already large fundraising to new heights. And the El Paso congressman once more vastly outraised the Republican incumbent, Ted Cruz, who took in lower than half of his challenger’s haul — $four.6 million — in the identical time, based on his marketing campaign. O’Rourke additionally took a decisive lead in money available over Cruz with 4 months to Election Day, $14 million to $10.four million. O’Rourke’s newest haul is definitely his largest but — topping the $6.7 million he raked in throughout the first quarter, which was excess of Cruz raised for a similar interval. Cruz’s second-quarter fundraising additionally was his largest but, although not practically sufficient to maintain up with O’Rourke’s torrid tempo.”
Ocasio-Cortez steamed at Crowley – Each day Beast: “The madness of New York election regulation spilled out right into a public tit-for-tat on Thursday morning, as rebel Democratic congressional candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez accused her former major opponent Rep. Joe Crowley of ‘mounting a third occasion problem’ after her beautiful defeat of the highly effective Home Democrat little greater than two weeks in the past. Ocasio-Cortez tweeted that Crowley ‘stood me up for all three scheduled concession calls’ and linked to a New York Instances article reporting that Crowley’s marketing campaign declined to relinquish the Working Households Social gathering line on the November poll. He had secured the occasion’s endorsement within the major and based on the article, WFP’s state director Invoice Lipton requested that he vacate it after his beautiful major-party defeat. The marketing campaign allegedly didn’t oblige.”
Home Dems focus on choices to exchange Pelosi – Roll Name: “Some Home Democrats have begun to speak extra brazenly in regards to the risk somebody apart from Nancy Pelosi could also be their chief subsequent 12 months — though, for now, she continues to be the odds-on favourite to proceed main the caucus. Management jockeying has picked up steam within the wake of Home Democratic Caucus Chairman Joseph Crowley’s major loss final month. The New York Democrat had been seen by many as a possible successor to Pelosi sooner or later. Just a few members corresponding to California Reps. Linda T. Sánchez and Barbara Lee are eyeing Crowley’s soon-to-be-open place, however others are discussing and being urged to run for greater posts, together with the highest spot of Democratic chief. Rep. Tim Ryan, who challenged Pelosi for her publish after the 2016 elections and misplaced, is contemplating operating towards her once more.”
Emily’s Checklist joins Home major race in Kansas – WaPo: “Emily’s Checklist, a Democratic-leaning advocacy group that helps girls in politics, has plunged into the crowded major for Kansas’s third Congressional District. Based on media trackers, Ladies Vote!, the group’s PAC, is spending practically $400,000 on promoting in help of Sharice Davids, a Native American activist and former White Home fellow who entered the race in February. … And it marks the second try by Emily’s Checklist to assist a feminine candidate win the first, in the one district throughout the Nice Plains — the Dakotas, Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma — that backed Hillary Clinton for president in 2016.”
GOP MEMBERS STRUGGLE WITH RUSSIA RELATIONSHIP
Politico: “Republicans are having a Russian identification disaster. The congressional GOP is brazenly scuffling with the USA’ relationship with Russia throughout President Donald Trump’s abroad journey this week — with some frightened about fraying U.S. alliances and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rising affect and others happy to see improved relations and frightened of getting on the improper facet of the chief of their very own occasion. The divisions come as Trump lashed out at different NATO member nations in Brussels on Wednesday for taking ‘unfair’ benefit of U.S. navy would possibly and a number of other days after a delegation of GOP senators visited Russia and have been promptly utilized by Moscow’s messaging equipment, which painted them as weak. The occasion’s stance will come to a head on Monday when Trump meets with Putin one-on-one in Helsinki. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) expressed frustration with the propaganda that adopted his latest go to and urged Trump to take a tough line with Putin after they sit down collectively.”
DHS says no indicators of Russian interference for 2018 up to now – Roll Name: “U.S. intelligence businesses and the Division of Homeland Safety will not be seeing proof up to now of a concerted effort by Russia to hack or penetrate American election programs throughout the 2018 midterms, high Homeland Safety officers informed lawmakers Wednesday. Though the 2018 ‘midterms stay a possible goal for Russian actors,’ the intelligence neighborhood has but to see proof of a strong marketing campaign aimed toward tampering with our election infrastructure alongside the traces of 2016 or influencing the make-up of the Home or Senate races, Christopher Krebs, the highest DHS official overseeing cybersecurity and elections safety, informed the Home Homeland Safety Committee. However intelligence businesses do see Russian actors utilizing social media platforms, adopting false personas and different means to inflame Individuals on controversial points, Krebs mentioned.”
Learn this: ‘Dana Perino: Ten years after Tony Snow died a lot too younger, I keep in mind the necessary issues he taught me’ – Fox Information
McCarthy begins stealthy, strategic speaker marketing campaign – Politico
Dems formally scale back function of superdelegates – NYT
Trump picks ambassadors for Somalia, Nicaragua – The Hill
AUDIBLE: SORRY NOT SORRY
“I’ve thought of it, and I’ve determined to not do it. I like myself an excessive amount of.” – Home Speaker Paul Ryan’s response when requested throughout an occasion on tax coverage whether or not he would run for president sooner or later.
FROM THE BLEACHERS
“Our really fearless chief’s criticism of the virtually snickering pomposity in Europe and the UN is lengthy overdue. Ship within the seagulls. … I like the thought of courting Putin. Russia, with a inhabitants of 145 million heavy drinkers, is extra obvious than actual, nonetheless has nice intelligence capabilities which can be purchased as they want the bucks. Russia has historically been left to the Anti Individuals and Chinese language so let’s examine how they react to our overtures to their girlfriend. Trump will maintain ’em guessing! Many thanks on your insights, maintain them coming.” – Bob Stenzel, Naples, Fla.
[Ed. be aware: That could be the way you see Russia, Mr. Stenzel. And it could even be fairly near the reality. However that’s not how Russians see themselves. One of many causes Putin has been so profitable at placing his nation in a bear hug is that he’s promoting what many Russians need to purchase: Restoration. Whether or not czarist or soviet, Russians lengthy for the instances of their historical past when their nation really was a world energy. “Nice Russia” is each an outline of a spot on the map that stretches from Poland to the Pacific however it’s also an perspective. These ambitions, coupled with a fatalistic world view that locations little worth on human life or particular person rights makes Putin a really harmful man. He means us and our allies hurt and nonetheless we proceed with our overseas coverage we should be clear eyed about that.]
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HEY BOO BOO!
UPI: “A Georgia girl who thought she noticed a big cat in her minivan took a better look and found a black bear consuming her lunch. Carrie Watts mentioned her van was parked outdoors the house the place she works as a caretaker and the home windows have been down because of the warmth. Watts mentioned she was vacuuming within the residence when she appeared out the window and noticed motion contained in the van. She mentioned she thought the animal was a big black cat, however she then realized it was a black bear. ‘I panicked. I began screaming. I did not know who to name, did not know get it out,’ Watts informed WSB-TV. Watts mentioned the bear stole her lunch, composed of ‘a sandwich, some chips and a cookie.’ She mentioned the bear was undeterred when she set off the van’s theft alarm and remained within the car for a while earlier than trying to go away together with her purse, which it dropped outdoors the van.”
AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“In Europe, Putin has unilaterally redrawn the map. His annexation of Crimea won’t be reversed. The Europeans are desirous to throw off the few sanctions they grudgingly imposed on Russia. And the rape of japanese Ukraine continues.”– Charles Krauthammer writing within the Washington Put up, April 18, 2016.
Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox Information. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Need FOX Information Halftime Report in your inbox day-after-day? Join right here.