FRANKIE DETTORI can land another Derby win on CIRCUS MAXIMUS according to the trends.
The draw has been important with stalls 1-3 having a shocking record. Just three horses have managed to even hit the frame from there — with no winners — in the past decade.
That has to be a worry for supporters of Line Of Duty, Telecaster and Hiroshima today.
Telecaster looks the most likely to beat that trend having won a key trial in the Dante at York last time. You need to have won one of your past three races, which spells the end for Sovereign.
The 2,000 Guineas form tends to work out well here but you need to have been in the first three last time out. There have been 20 runners who were out of the places at Newmarket come and tackle the Derby with none hitting the target.
Madhmoon was fourth in the first colts’ Classic which has to be a worry, although he does tick plenty of other boxes.
We did get a shock winner in 40-1 poke Wings Of Eagles two years ago but that was a real blip and it would be a big surprise to see either Norway or Humanitarian take the Blue Riband.
Favourite Sir Dragonet has a hole in his trends profile because he didn’t run as a two-year-old. Only Ruler Of The World in 2013 made his debut as a three-year-old so that has to be a worry, as it does for Telecaster.
None of the past 10 winners were any worse than third last time out which puts an end to the hopes of Japan.
Miles on the clock is important with no Derby winner in the past decade having been on the track more than five times. That spells bad news for Broome and Anthony Van Dyck.
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So we’re left with two in Bangkok and CIRCUS MAXIMUS.
The latter comes from Chester’s Dee Stakes which has a good record with two winners and two places from the past 10 winners to come to Epsom. He should run well at an each-way price with Frankie in the saddle.
Bangkok has the poor record of the Sandown Trial he won to overcome. You have to go back to Benny The Dip in 1997 for a horse following up. But his form is solid and he can hit the frame.
1. Circus Maximus