“Nuclear Niño” – Nuclear War Could Trigger Big El Niño and Decrease Seafood

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Nuclear Niño

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A ‘nuclear Niño’ in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is displayed in simulated temperature level modifications (Celsius) simply 4 months after a massive nuclear war in between the United States and Russia. Credit: Joshua Coupe

Unprecedented warming in equatorial Pacific Ocean might last approximately 7 years.

A nuclear war might set off an unmatched El Niño-like warming episode in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, slashing algal populations by 40 percent and most likely reducing the fish catch, according to a Rutgers-led research study.

The research study, released in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, reveals that relying on the oceans for food if land-based farming stops working after a nuclear war is not likely to be an effective method – a minimum of in the equatorial Pacific.

“In our computer simulations, we see a 40 percent reduction in phytoplankton (algae) biomass in the equatorial Pacific, which would likely have downstream effects on larger marine organisms that people eat,” stated lead author Joshua Coupe, a post-doctoral research study partner in the Department of Environmental Sciences in the School of Environmental and Biological Sciences at Rutgers University–New Brunswick. “Previous research has shown that global cooling following a nuclear war could lead to crop failure on land, and our study shows we probably can’t rely on seafood to help feed people, at least in that area of the world.”

Scientists studied environment modification in 6 nuclear war situations, concentrating on the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The situations consist of a significant dispute in between the United States and Russia and 5 smaller sized wars in between India and Pakistan. Such wars might fire up huge fires that inject countless lots of soot (black carbon) into the upper environment, obstructing sunshine and interrupting Earth’s environment.

With an Earth system design to mimic the 6 situations, the researchers revealed that a massive nuclear war might set off an unmatched El Niño-like occasion lasting approximately 7 years. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is the biggest naturally happening phenomenon that impacts Pacific Ocean blood circulation, rotating in between warm El Niño and cold La Niña events and exceptionally affecting marine performance and fisheries.

During a “nuclear Niño,” researchers discovered that rainfall over the Maritime Continent (the location in between the Indian and Pacific oceans and surrounding seas) and equatorial Africa would be closed down, mainly since of a cooler environment.

More significantly, a nuclear Niño would close down upwelling of much deeper, chillier waters along the equator in the Pacific Ocean, lowering the upward motion of nutrients that phytoplankton – the base of the marine food web – require to make it through. Moreover, the reduced sunshine after a nuclear war would significantly decrease photosynthesis, worrying and possibly eliminating lots of phytoplankton.

“Turning to the sea for food after a nuclear war that dramatically reduces crop production on land seems like it would be a good idea,” stated co-author Alan Robock, a Distinguished Professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers–New Brunswick. “But that would not be a reliable source of the protein we need, and we must prevent nuclear conflict if we want to safeguard our food and Earth’s environment.”

Reference: “Nuclear Niño response observed in simulations of nuclear war scenarios” by Joshua Coupe, Samantha Stevenson, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Tyler Rohr, Cheryl S. Harrison, Alan Robock, Holly Olivarez, Charles G. Bardeen and Owen B. Toon, 22 January 2021, Communications Earth & Environment.
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-020-00088-1

Scientists at the University of California, Santa Barbara; University of Colorado, Boulder; Australian Antarctic Partnership Program; University of Texas, Rio Grande Valley; and National Center for Atmospheric Research added to the research study.

Funding: Open Philanthropy Project, National Science Foundation, University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado State University