The overnight headlines say ‘too close to call’


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ohio 12th congressional district voting line

A model of this text first appeared within the Dependable Sources publication. You can join free proper right here.

Too near name

The small image about Tuesday’s particular election in Ohio: “The Republican is forward!”

The BIG image: “The Democrat actually should not even be shut.”

By 11 p.m. Japanese, Troy Balderson had pulled barely forward of Democrat Danny O’Connor in OH-12. The Republican get together got here out and stated Balderson gained. President Trump tweeted in regards to the “nice victory” and took credit score for serving to the candidate.

However the Related Press and the foremost networks all say it is too near name.

“The CNN resolution crew is not going to make a projection within the Ohio 12th Congressional District particular election tonight as a result of the race is just too near name,” CNN’s reside weblog stated shortly earlier than 11:30 p.m.

Balderson is forward by 1,754 votes, and Ohio’s Secretary of State says there are eight,483 excellent ballots.

“A really steep hill for Republicans this yr”

However the level, it doesn’t matter what, is that this race “ought to” have been a slam dunk for the GOP. That is essentially the most correct body for this story, and for essentially the most half, that is the body journalists are selecting.

“This district is ruby purple Republican. The truth that it’s so shut is a giant deal,” John King stated on CNN. A short time later, he informed Don Lemon that it is a “ethical victory” of types for the Democrats. “The truth that that is so shut tells you this can be a very steep hill for Republicans this yr,” King stated.

I assumed this was a telling comment by RNC chief of employees turned CNN contributor Mike Shields: The “historic common is that the president’s get together loses 26 seats. We have to beat historical past by 4 seats. Our base wants to observe tonight and say, you understand what, different networks are telling them all the things’s tremendous — it isn’t.”

Examine CNN’s reside weblog for the newest updates from the particular election in Ohio… And from the primaries in different states…

The pink wave…

Bear in mind the temporary authorities shutdown again in January? And the foolish predictions that it will in some way sway the midterms? I keep in mind asking on CNN, “What’s the larger story this weekend? Is it the shutdown, or is it really the ladies’s march?” My intestine informed me it was the march… And my intestine has been backed up by all of the indicators since then…

Get your media repair with the Dependable Sources publication

“The #PinkWave is the largest story of 2018,” Time’s Charlotte Alter tweeted Tuesday night time, linking to this information from the Heart for American Girls and Politics at Rutgers: “It is official. With polls closed in KS, MI, MO, we have damaged the document for girls main get together nominees for U.S. Home in any yr. The earlier document was 167. With 5 girls candidates unopposed and one all-female main, we have hit 168 tonight with presumably extra to come back…”

In regards to the polling…

I observed CNN’s Harry Enten and 538’s Nate Silver each noting the accuracy of current polling in tweets on Tuesday night time. I requested Enten to elaborate, and this is what he informed me:

“The polling at present exhibits Democrats favored to take again the Home within the fall. One hope Republicans have to carry onto the Home is a polling error. You would possibly recall that Trump was polling behind Hillary Clinton in numerous key swing states that he ended up profitable. But, the polling on this yr’s particular elections recommend that Republicans should not get their hopes up.”

“In Ohio 12’s particular election, the polling indicated a good race. That is precisely what occurred,” Enten stated. “If you have a look at the polling in all of the particular elections this cycle, the typical error has really been smaller in comparison with particular elections in years previous. Maybe most significantly? The polling, if something, has been biased in opposition to the Democrats. That’s, they did higher than the polling indicated within the common particular election.”

CNN staying reside in a single day

Usually talking, CNN and MSNBC are spending extra time overlaying the particular elections than Fox. CNN will keep reside all night time Tuesday/early morning Wednesday… Don Lemon is on from DC till 1 a.m. Japanese, and John Vause will choose up the protection then…

One of many functions of Trump’s media bashing…

I believe John Podhoretz was on to one thing the opposite day when he stated that Trump’s media bashing “is the predicate for the submit election excuse for the blue wave.”

First, Trump says the press is the “enemy.” Then he can say the press doomed the GOP within the midterms.

Podhoretz elaborated on this NYPost column, calling the media bashing “an insurance coverage coverage of a sort.” The thought: Come November, Trump and the GOP “will not have misplaced due to public disaffection or anger, however fairly as a result of they have been propagandized into voting in opposition to him. The repair was in. The Faux Information Made Me Lose. And now they actually must be stopped…”

Learn extra of Tuesday’s Dependable Sources publication… And subscribe right here to obtain future editions in your inbox…

CNNMoney (New York) First revealed August eight, 2018: 12:14 AM ET

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