Britain’s lengthy and winding path out of the European Union has taken one other twist — into one other potential useless finish.
The U.Okay. is because of depart the EU in 10 days, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been stymied twice in 48 hours in his try to get Parliament to approve his divorce deal.
Right here’s a have a look at what may occur subsequent.
Britain Leaves With a Deal
Because it stands, Britain will stop to be a member of the EU at midnight Brussels time (11 p.m. London time) on Oct. 31. Johnson’s authorities says it nonetheless thinks it could actually get Parliament’s backing for the deal and cross the laws wanted to implement it in time to fulfill the deadline and depart in good order.
Two issues are in opposition to it: time and numbers.
READ MORE: U.Okay. PM Johnson requests Brexit delay whereas concurrently arguing in opposition to it
However there is no such thing as a assure of majority help for the invoice in Britain’s fractious Parliament. Johnson’s Conservatives maintain simply 288 of the 650 seats within the Home of Commons, so he wants help from different events and impartial lawmakers to get the laws by means of.
Opposition lawmakers additionally plan to hunt amendments that would considerably alter the invoice, for instance by including a requirement that the Brexit deal be put to voters in a brand new referendum. The federal government says such an modification would wreck its laws and it’ll withdraw the invoice if it succeeds.
Britain Leaves And not using a Deal
Despite the fact that a deal is unsure, the probabilities Britain will crash out of the bloc on Oct. 31 with out one have receded.
Many British lawmakers worry a no-deal Brexit will trigger gridlock at ports, shortages of some meals and medicines and a deep recession. To keep away from it, final month they handed a regulation compelling the federal government to ask the EU for a three-month delay to Brexit if the Halloween deadline was looming with no deal in place.
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Johnson complied by sending the delay request on Saturday, whereas additionally stressing in a second letter that he personally didn’t need an extension. The EU says it’s contemplating the request.
The regulation additionally compels the British authorities to just accept any extension the EU gives, so a no-deal Brexit will solely occur if the bloc refuses.
Leaders of the 27 different EU international locations — who should agree unanimously — are weary and annoyed at Britain’s interminable Brexit melodrama. However additionally they wish to keep away from the financial ache that might come to each the U.Okay. and the bloc from a sudden and disruptive British exit. That implies that, regardless of their grumbling, they’re prone to grant a delay.
Brexit is Delayed — Once more
The third choice is that Britain’s departure, already delayed twice, shall be postponed once more.
Johnson’s oft-repeated vow that Britain will depart the EU on Oct. 31 “come what might” may go the identical approach as his predecessor Theresa Could’s insistence that the nation would depart the bloc on March 29. No marvel Could advised lawmakers on Saturday that, watching the Brexit debate unfold, “I’ve a definite sense of deja vu.”
2:34Brexit deal approval stalled once more in British parliament
Brexit was alleged to occur in March, however with Britain’s Parliament cut up over the departure phrases the EU pushed again the deadline, first to April after which to October.
If Johnson’s deal is on observe for approval, there may very well be a “technical extension” of some weeks for the small print to be hammered out and for the European Parliament to offer its personal consent to the settlement.
If the gridlock in Parliament continues, the EU may supply an extended delay however make it contingent on Britain holding a serious occasion, comparable to a brand new referendum on Brexit or a basic election. Each Johnson’s Conservatives and opposition events wish to have an election that would shake up the parliamentary arithmetic and break the Brexit logjam. However a majority of lawmakers must conform to an election — and thus far they disagree on when to carry it.
© 2019 The Canadian Press