Taiwan leader’s see to U.S. might provoke a ‘huge’ response from China

China-Taiwan ties: U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity is now 'not so ambiguous,' says Eurasia Group

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Flags of the United States and Taiwan showed on phone screens are seen in this several direct exposure illustration picture taken in Poland on August 4, 2022.

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A conference in between Taiwan’s leader and U.S. House Speaker will provoke a strong response from China, stated Anna Ashton, China director at the Eurasia Group.

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing- wen will likely fulfill in person with Kevin McCarthy when she makes a transit go to through Los Angeles next week. Tsai is presently on a 10- field trip to check out Central American allies, Belize and Guatemala.

The conference with McCarthy hasn’t been formally validated.

“The reality is that McCarthy is third in line to the presidency. A meeting like this would be the senior most U.S. official meeting with a sitting Taiwan president on U.S. soil ever,” Aston informed CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday.

“Beijing has already warned about their opposition to this meeting and we could see a reaction, even as big as the reaction after the Pelosi visit.”

Crossing of China’s red lines by the U.S. might press China into a scenario where it feels forced to utilize force and act more assertively.

Anna Ashton

China director at the Eurasia Group

Thorny relations

Relations in between the U.S. and China have actually been going downhill, experts caution. Next week’s conference in between Tsai and McCarthy will likely contribute to currently increasing stress.

China has actually consistently stated that the problem with Taiwan is an internal affair. Beijing declares that the self-governed island becomes part of its area, and preserves that Taiwan must have no right to carry out foreign relations.

The Biden administration has actually been eager to playdown Tsai’s most current transit, calling it “unofficial.”

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“In all previous transits, she met with members of Congress, as well as state and local officials, and had public appearances,” White House National Security Council representative John Kirby, stated at a press instruction on Wednesday.

China’s foreign ministry had strong words for the U.S.

“The trip is not so much a ‘transit,’ but an attempt to seek breakthroughs and propagate ‘Taiwan independence,” spokesperson, Mao Ning, stated Wednesday at a routine press instruction. “The issue is not about China overreacting, but the U.S. egregiously conniving at and supporting ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists.”

Crossing red lines

Beijing has actually regularly cautioned that Taiwan is the “first red line” that needs to not be crossed.

Ashton explained that it is essential to keep in mind that China has frequently stated it chooses long-lasting tranquil reunification with Taiwan.

“Time is on China’s side and always has been — except for the fact, that the U.S. has become a little bit less predictable,” the expert stated.

“Crossing of China’s red lines by the U.S. could push China into a situation where it feels compelled to use force and act more assertively because it’s protecting what it sees as its interests against a U.S. effort to block them.”