It will be challenging to discover a diplomatic resolution for the war in Ukraine unless the circumstance on the ground modifications, according to Francis Fukuyama, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
“Both of the sides have lost so much that the kind of concessions that would be needed to come to a compromise solution are just not politically acceptable,” he informed CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Wednesday.
For Ukraine, it’s challenging to accept anything less than Russia withdrawing to its pre-war area, he stated.
“If the Russians don’t withdraw to the positions they held on Feb. 23, before the invasion, I don’t see how a Ukrainian president could survive that,” stated Fukuyama.
“He’s basically conceding Ukrainian territory to Russian aggression,” he included.
The Russians have actually been demoralized, they have actually deserted their cars. They do not understand why they’re battling.
Francis Fukuyama
Stanford University
On the other hand, Russia can not consent to releasing any territorial gains given that the war in Ukraine started.
“It would imply that [President Vladimir Putin] released this huge war, he’s taken huge casualties and caused huge casualties– all for absolutely nothing,” Fukuyama stated.
“A solution will have to await new developments on the battlefield,” he stated.
Besides the territorial concern, Russia has stated it desires Ukraine to sign a neutrality contract, something that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has actually stated he is prepared to do.
Zelenskyy likewise stated he wanted to jeopardize with Russia with regard to the Donbas, an objected to area in the east of Ukraine.
‘Destroyed’ and demoralized
While Fukuyama stated he can’t forecast how the war will play out, he stated Russia has actually currently been beat in the location north of Kyiv.
“They claim that they’re just regrouping but, you know, make no mistake about it, the Ukrainians really destroyed, you know, a quarter to a third of that massive force that they had,” he stated.
Fukuyama stated he’s “more optimistic” about Ukraine’s chances of winning the war since their spirits is greater.
“The Russians have been demoralized, they’ve abandoned their vehicles. They don’t know why they’re fighting,” he stated, including Russia’s cars were not well kept due to corruption.
On the other hand, “tens of thousands” of Ukrainians returned house to eliminate on behalf of their nation.
“They’ve been motivated by a deep sense of patriotism and national identity,” stated Fukuyama.
“I think that those are factors that really play a huge role in determining the outcome of the military conflict,” he stated.
